New estimates show emissions down 1 percent, but gains offset by growth in oil, gas, and transport sectors
The Canadian Climate Institute’s latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) shows national emissions dropped by 1 percent in 2023 compared to 2022.
The overall improvement was modest, with some sectors performing better than others. Emissions from the electricity sector decreased significantly, while oil and gas emissions increased.
The estimate reveals that emissions are now 8 percent below 2005 levels, which serves as the baseline year for Canada's 2030 emissions target of a 40 to 45 percent reduction.
Canada's emissions would have been 8.6 Mt CO2e higher in 2023 due to strong economic growth. However, the reduction of 14.2 Mt CO2e from the impact of climate policy and clean energy technologies offset this increase, leading to an overall decrease of 5.6 Mt from the previous year.
At a sectoral level, oil and gas emissions continued to rise, increasing by 1 percent or 2.2 Mt compared to 2022. The sector now contributes 31 percent of the country's total emissions.
The electricity sector saw a significant reduction in emissions, now sitting 62 percent lower than 2005 levels. Meanwhile, transportation emissions rose by 1.6 percent (2.5 Mt) due to increased domestic aviation activity.
Building emissions, on the other hand, dropped by 5.6 percent (4.9 Mt), largely due to warmer weather attributed to El Niño, enhanced by climate change. In total, Canada emitted 702 Mt of carbon dioxide-equivalent in 2023, down 5.6 Mt from 2022.
The Canadian Climate Institute’s research has shown that climate policy has played a significant role in reducing carbon pollution, with more notable progress expected as policies remain in effect.
“Our early estimate shows that rising oil and gas and transportation emissions are offsetting gains made in electricity and buildings, slowing Canada’s climate progress,” added Dave Sawyer, principal economist of the Canadian Climate Institute.
“While decoupling emissions from economic growth is a good sign, this is a long game—governments need to build momentum and set strong policy foundations for lasting climate progress.”
Without current climate policies, Canada’s emissions would be higher today and projected to rise by 41 percent by 2030. Existing climate policies are expected to prevent 226 Mt of carbon emissions by 2030, which is equivalent to the combined emissions of Quebec and Ontario.
Finalizing and following through on developing and announced policies is expected to lead to deeper emissions cuts by 2030.
The Institute has highlighted the need for momentum to achieve Canada's 2030 target and future competitiveness in the global energy transition.
Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, stated, “Once again, progress in Canada’s emissions reductions is starkly different across sectors. Governments right across the country need to accelerate developing policy and strengthen measures already in place, like electrification and industrial carbon pricing systems.”
They recommend all levels of government, including provinces and territories, implement already announced emissions reduction policies, strengthen current measures, and introduce new ones.
