ATB projects strong GDP growth for Alberta in 2025, driven by oil, tech, and migration trends
Alberta’s economy is expected to grow in 2025 and 2026, but it faces challenges from heightened geopolitical uncertainty, as outlined in ATB Financial’s latest economic outlook.
Strong oil production, rising home construction, and increased employment are driving the province’s economic momentum as it enters 2025.
However, rising unemployment due to a growing influx of job seekers and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continue to present challenges.
ATB Financial projects Alberta’s GDP to grow by 2.5 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026, surpassing the national average.
The energy sector remains a key driver of this growth, complemented by advancements in technology and petrochemicals and increased interprovincial migration.
Falling interest rates are expected to stimulate consumer spending, but trade uncertainty and reduced international migration could slow progress.
Reflecting these challenges, ATB Financial lowered its October forecast, which had projected GDP growth of 2.8 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026.
ATB Financial outlined alternate scenarios in its outlook, noting that escalating trade tensions could dampen business investment and hinder growth.
On the other hand, minimal trade disruptions and the advancement of major projects could provide an upside to the forecast.
Chief Economist Mark Parsons noted that Alberta's economy has shown resilience in 2024 and maintains momentum into the new year. However, he emphasized that the province is “entering a period of heightened uncertainty.”
He also pointed to the challenges of navigating the impacts of US tariffs and adjusting to significant population shifts following a period of high inflation.
