Increased production and global demand propel Canada to third in wheat exports for a second year
Canada is set to remain the world’s third-largest wheat exporter for the second consecutive year, driven by increased production across the prairie provinces, as per BNN Bloomberg.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows Canada has overtaken Australia for the third spot in global wheat exports for the 2023-24 crop year, with projections indicating a similar outcome for 2024-25.
This places Canada behind only Russia and the European Union in wheat export volumes.
The latest 2024-25 outlook from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecasts a 1.8 percent increase in Canada’s production of all major field crops compared to last year, bringing production levels 2.4 percent above the five-year average.
The recent fall harvest, nearing completion, reflects improved yields in Western Canada, where drought conditions have been less severe than in previous years.
Despite last year’s drought, Canada’s wheat production secured third place globally due to weather-related declines in Australian crop yields.
Canada exported nearly 21.8 megatonnes of wheat to 65 countries during the 2023-24 season, with China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and the United States being the top buyers, as reported by AAFC.
Justin Shepherd, an economist with Farm Credit Canada, noted that global wheat export rankings can shift based on regional weather patterns, yet Canada’s wheat exports have been growing consistently over time.
“We did see a much smaller wheat crop to export in 2021 due to a fairly significant drought on the prairies that year. But overall, as long as Canada is able to grow an average or above-average crop, we have seen exports grow over time,” Shepherd explained.
Global wheat consumption is anticipated to increase by 0.6 percent in 2024-25, with rising demand from North America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, according to the USDA.
In particular, Canadian durum wheat—a variety widely cultivated in the southern prairie provinces and used for pasta—continues to see strong demand from European and North African markets.
The Canadian Grain Commission has reported that durum wheat exports through Canada’s licensed elevator system are already 25 percent ahead of last year’s levels this fall.
Wheat’s water-intensive nature makes it more vulnerable to drought than other staples like maize, rice, and soy. The World Resources Institute projects that by 2040, nearly three-quarters of global wheat production will be under threat from water scarcity and climate-induced stress.
However, Canadian farmers have managed to enhance wheat yields through advances in crop genetics and breeding, allowing the country to remain resilient despite challenging weather conditions.
“In Canada we’ve worked really hard on our wheat genetics to withstand some of the drought stress that maybe previous varieties of wheat didn’t have,” said Stewart Oke, a central Alberta farmer and director with the Alberta Grains producer group.
He emphasized that Canada’s wheat yields, and production have continued to grow, even in the face of difficult weather.
Moreover, Canadian wheat exporters are benefiting from the weaker Canadian dollar, which makes the country’s agricultural exports more attractive to international buyers.
“Not only are they getting the best wheat in the world, but they’re able to buy it at a bit of an exchange deficit, which just makes it more affordable for those buyers,” Oke explained.
Oke noted the importance of Canada’s current position as the world’s third-largest wheat exporter, especially for Western Canada.
“It’s certainly a feather in Canada’s cap — particularly Western Canada — to move into that third spot,” he remarked. He added that Canadian farmers are committed to maintaining this rank. “Both from a producer level, but also as an export market, we want to hold that third position,” Oke said.
While advancements in wheat genetics and advantageous currency conditions contribute to Canada’s export strength, Oke acknowledged that the industry still relies heavily on favourable weather conditions.
Canadian farmers are determined to continue improving their wheat production to uphold and strengthen Canada’s standing in the global market.
