Statistics Canada's new projections show Canada’s population growth driven by immigration and aging trends
Canada's demographic landscape has changed significantly since the 2022 edition of Statistics Canada's population projections.
Population growth accelerated due to many immigrants arriving, fertility reached a record low in 2022, and life expectancy decreased for three consecutive years (2020 to 2022).
Today, Statistics Canada released new population projections for Canada (2023 to 2073) and for the provinces and territories (2023 to 2048). These projections include several scenarios, considering recent trends and expert opinions.
Canada's population, estimated at 40.1 million in 2023, will continue to grow according to various scenarios, reaching between 47.1 million and 87.2 million by 2073. The medium-growth scenario (M1) projects a population of 62.8 million by 2073.
The annual population growth rate, which averaged 1.12 percent over the last three decades, will gradually decrease to 0.79 percent by 2072/2073 in the medium-growth scenario.
In contrast, the high-growth scenario predicts an increase to 1.59 percent, while the low-growth scenario forecasts a decrease to 0.07 percent.
Migratory increase will be the primary driver of population growth in all scenarios, continuing a trend since the 1990s. Natural increase—births minus deaths—will play a minor role due to the rising number of deaths from an aging population and low fertility rates, similar to trends in other countries.
The proportion of people aged 65 and older will rise from 18.9 percent in 2023 to between 21.9 percent (slow-aging scenario) and 32.3 percent (fast-aging scenario) by 2073. However, this growth will slow after 2030, when all baby boomers will have turned 65.
The share of children (aged 0 to 14) has significantly decreased since 1962, when it was 34.0 percent. Estimated at 15.4 percent in 2023, this share will continue to decline in most projection scenarios, except for the slow-aging and high-growth scenarios.
The number of people aged 85 and older will increase rapidly, especially between 2031 and 2050, as the baby-boom cohort reaches this age group, which requires more healthcare and services.
The population aged 85 and older will grow from 896,600 in 2023 to between 3.3 million (low-growth scenario) and 4.3 million (high-growth scenario) by 2073.
The average age of Canadians will rise from 41.6 years in 2023 to between 42.6 years (slow-aging scenario) and 50.1 years (fast-aging scenario) by 2073.
If current trends persist, the population share of provinces east of Ontario will decline in all projection scenarios.
Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec will see their populations decrease as a share of Canada's total population between 2023 and 2048. In contrast, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia will see an increase.
Ontario and Quebec will remain the most populous provinces over the next 25 years. The annual population growth rate will vary among provinces and territories, with some potentially seeing population decreases.
For instance, in the low-growth scenario, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories will experience population declines between 2023 and 2048.
Population aging will increase the share of older adults (aged 65 and older) in all provinces and territories. The proportion of people aged 85 and older will also rise rapidly in the coming years.
