Half of Canadians and Americans already think a recession happening

Leger poll finds economic worries persist as job security concerns rise and more Canadians live paycheque to paycheque

Half of Canadians and Americans already think a recession happening

A recent Leger survey indicates that about half of Canadians and Americans believe their respective countries are currently in an economic recession.

The survey found that 50 percent of Canadians and 51 percent of Americans believe their countries are in a recession. However, neither country is officially experiencing one.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates that potential 25 percent across-the-board tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump could reduce Canada’s economy by $78bn, potentially triggering a recession by next summer.

The chamber also estimates a US$467bn economic impact on the United States. 

Concerns over job security and financial stability remain high among respondents. The poll found that 39 percent of employed Canadians fear job loss in the next 12 months, marking a three-point increase from the previous month.

Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, said the findings reflect “a long series of difficult moments.” 

The survey also explored personal financial situations. While 62 percent of Canadians consider their household finances to be in good shape, 46 percent report living paycheque to paycheque.

Among Americans, 51 percent rate their finances as good, but 59 percent say they live paycheque to paycheque.

The findings suggest that while Canada’s economy provides relatively more financial stability, a significant portion of the population still faces financial strain.

Dallaire noted that although the United States has more economic power, it also faces greater income inequality due to a less robust social safety net.

“The big difference between the two countries is in Canada, you do have more protection, you do have more backup if things go south a little bit, but in the United States it can be much tougher if you’re not able to make ends meet,” he said. 

Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.6 percent in January 2025.

Among Canadians surveyed, 14 percent said they were very concerned about losing their job, while 25 percent were somewhat concerned, bringing the total to 39 percent expressing job insecurity.

The poll, conducted between February 14 and February 17, surveyed 1,550 Canadians and 1,000 Americans. Since it was conducted online, it cannot be assigned a margin of error, according to the Canadian Research Insights Council.