Who pays the price for US tariffs on Canada?

A new report from Syntax Data highlights the Canadian companies most vulnerable to proposed US tariffs, identifying the top 10 firms facing potential financial risks.

Nearly half of these companies operate in the energy sector, according to BNN Bloomberg.

US President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans for tariffs on Canadian imports, stating they are “going forward on time.”

The executive order, initially delayed until March 4, would impose a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian imports, with a reduced 10 percent levy on energy.

A White House official later indicated that negotiations could still alter the final tariff plans.

The report examines how tariffs could disrupt Canadian industries reliant on US trade, raising costs for exporters and potentially affecting supply chains.

Syntax Data identified companies with the highest revenue exposure to the US as those most at risk.

“The energy sector is at risk given how much business Canadian energy producers do with the US. Forty percent of the top 10 companies identified are in energy production, including Enbridge Inc. and TC Energy, which each generate approximately 50 percent of their revenue in the US,” the report states. 

The report also points to the broader impact of energy tariffs.

Since 60 percent of US crude oil imports come from Canada, the planned 10 percent tariff could significantly affect the industry.

While the reduced rate aims to prevent extreme energy price increases for US consumers, it would still have major consequences for Canadian energy firms with substantial US market exposure. 

Companies facing the greatest risks

^{Source: Syntax Data}

Ellison Kandler, senior vice president and head of equity at Syntax Data, explained to BNN Bloomberg that the report simplifies complex supply chain data to help investors understand which companies may be at risk.

“Companies are more than just their revenues, and they’re multinational,” Kandler said.

He explained that many firms operate worldwide, earning revenues in the United States while also maintaining operations there.

The report identifies Nutrien as the company facing the highest risk. The Saskatoon-based fertilizer producer generates 61 percent of its annual revenue from US transactions, totaling US$17.66bn.

As a result, its customers could face an estimated $4.41bn in additional costs due to tariffs. 

“Agriculture is obviously a big cross-border good, and the agricultural products are essentially going to be tariffed,” Kandler said.

He noted that potash mines in Saskatchewan could also face tariffs, adding that many nitrogen facilities are actually located in the United States. 

The report ranks Enbridge as the second most at-risk company. Based in Calgary, the firm has pipelines that “crisscross the US border,” Kandler said. 

“The interesting thing about Enbridge is that it’s within that energy tariff bucket,” he said, noting that instead of 25 percent, the tariff could be set at 10 percent.

He added that this reflects how much of the energy the United States imports is refined domestically before being used or exported.

He also noted that energy plays a significant role in the US-Canada trade deficit, making it a critical issue in tariff discussions.

Magna International, an Ontario-based auto parts manufacturer, ranks third among the companies most at risk.

“Not only are they super integrated into the North American automotive ecosystem, but they have a separate set of tariffs on automotive products as well as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals that may be completely separate from the Canadian tariffs,” Kandler said. 

Trump recently signaled his intention to impose auto tariffs, saying on February 18 that they would be “in the neighborhood of 25 percent.”

Last week, Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, told BNN Bloomberg that a 25 percent tariff would be unworkable for the North American auto industry, which would sooner “shut down” than operate under such conditions.